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Friday 28 August 2009

Bookies giving money away!

Just a quickie post today ahead of the Glovers 12am kick-off tomorrow morning at Huddersfield. The bookies have got to be having a laugh with their odds on this game, surely? I know, don't call me Shirley.

For the record they have Huddersfield as odds-on favourites at 4/7, the draw at a very tempting 3/1 and a Yeovil win at an almost irresistible 5/1. I sometimes wonder who it is who sets the odds for these games and do they look at anything beyond the facts of league positions/size of clubs and the plainly bloody obvious? I don't know why I'm moaning really, as this is one of those times that fans can take advantage of the bookies relative ignorance.

Doubtless the bookies will have taken note that it's that huge giant Huddersfield at home to tiny Yeovil. They'll have noted that the Terriers have won all 3 of their home games this season, scoring 13 and only conceding 3; and they've set their odds accordingly. What they are ignoring is that the Glovers record at the Galpharm is pretty good - we've played there 5 times in total, winning twice, drawing once and losing twice. Added to that Yeovil have had a week without a game and welcome back injured players who make a big difference to our side - the likes of Stefan Stam, Nathan Smith and Ryan Mason are all fit for Saturday.

Huddersfield on the other hand have lost their player of the season Gary Roberts (no relation to our ex) for Saturday's game, as well as midfielder Tom Clarke (no relation etc) and might also be without several others including former Glover Lee Peltier, who was concussed on Wednesday night. Ah yes, Wednesday night - while our squad had their feet up relaxing and preparing for this weekend, Huddersfield were slogging their guts out against Newcastle Utd's reserve team in the League Cup, losing 4-3 in an energy-sapping game and breaking their hearts in the process. Added to all that (if all that wasn't enough) this weekend the Huddersfield Giants rugby league side play at Wembley in the RL equivalent of the FA Cup Final and the majority of Huddersfield will have buggered off to London with them, leaving the Galpharm Stadium resembling the Marie Celeste, hopefully. Of course if we had demanded to have kicked-off at the normal time of 3pm then there might have been a chance of the away fans out-numbering the home fans which would have been a first, but that that's not going to happen now. Still, the 12am kick-off while disadvantaging the travelling Glovers also doesn't help the Huddersfield side's recovery from their midweek efforts, so it's all swings and roundabouts.

All of which taken together points to there being a very good chance that the bookies have got it horribly wrong, for once. The only question is should I bet on the draw, or the Yeovil win? Or both?! £2.50 on the draw and the away win returns either £7.50 or £12.50, minus the £5 stake - so a profit of either £2.50 or £7.50, depending on the result being a draw or an away win. Of course a straight fiver on the draw returns £15 and the same on the away win a (relatively) massive £25! You pays yer money and you makes yer choice.... Sod it, faint heart never won fair lady, as the saying goes. My fiver's going on the away win! Running total: -£7.50p

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